Indonesia's Ageing Transition Toward 2030: A Life-Course Projection Analysis of Old-Age Dependency and Healthy-Ageing Pressure
Article Integrity
Article Metrics
76
Article Views
41
PDF Downloads
0
Crossref Citations
Abstract
Indonesia is entering an accelerated phase of population ageing, but the near-term demographic shift is rarely interpreted as the downstream result of life-course exposures and capacities. This study projects Indonesia's ageing pressure to 2030 using a secondary-data projection-based population design anchored in the official BPS 2020-2050 cohort-component projections, externally checked against the 2025 Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS), and interpreted through Indonesian longitudinal and international life-course evidence. Outcomes were the number and share of people aged 65 years or older, the old-age dependency ratio (OADR), the total dependency ratio, the official scenario envelope, and a Functional-Ageing Pressure Index (FAPI) used as a transparent policy stress-test. The population aged 65+ is projected to rise from 21.58 million in 2025 to 27.58 million in 2030 (+27.80%), while OADR increases from 11.00 to 13.58 (+23.43%). The 2030 official scenario range for the 65+ population is narrow (27.58-27.83 million), indicating substantial demographic lock-in. The 2025 total-population projection differs from SUPAS by only about 0.08%. Even with a 10% reduction in per-capita functional need, FAPI remains 11.09% above the 2025 baseline. Indonesia therefore requires a life-course healthy-ageing strategy that reduces later-life functional need before demographic ageing intensifies further.
IMPACT STATEMENT
Most Indonesians who will be aged 65 years or older in 2030 are already alive, so the near-term size of the older population is largely fixed. The policy question is therefore not whether ageing will occur, but in what state of health, functional ability, and social support cohorts will reach later life. The analysis shows that even meaningful reductions in per-person functional need may not fully offset demographic pressure. Investments in early-life nutrition, education, non-communicable disease prevention, decent work, social protection, pre-old-age screening, age-friendly environments, and integrated care should be treated as one connected healthy-ageing pathway.
References
1
J. R. Beard, A. Officer, I. A. de Carvalho, et al., "The World report on ageing and health: a policy framework for healthy ageing," The Lancet, vol. 387, no. 10033, pp. 2145-2154, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00516-4.
2
K. Christensen, G. Doblhammer, R. Rau, and J. W. Vaupel, "Ageing populations: the challenges ahead," The Lancet, vol. 374, no. 9696, pp. 1196-1208, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61460-4.
3
BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Population Projections of Indonesia 2020-2050: Result of the 2020 Population Census. Jakarta, Indonesia: BPS-Statistics Indonesia, 2023, ISBN 978-602-438-521-7.
4
BPS-Statistics Indonesia, "SUPAS 2025: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 2.13, the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is 14.12, and the percentage of older persons has reached 11.97 percent," Official Statistics News, May 5, 2026.
5
BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Statistics of Aging Population 2025. Jakarta, Indonesia: BPS-Statistics Indonesia, 2025.
6
N. Keating, "A research framework for the United Nations Decade of Healthy Ageing (2021-2030)," European Journal of Ageing, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 775-787, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10433-021-00679-7.
7
Y. Ben-Shlomo and D. Kuh, "A life course approach to chronic disease epidemiology: conceptual models, empirical challenges and interdisciplinary perspectives," International Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 285-293, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/31.2.285.
8
D. Kuh, Y. Ben-Shlomo, J. Lynch, J. Hallqvist, and C. Power, "Life course epidemiology," Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, vol. 57, no. 10, pp. 778-783, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.10.778.
9
D. Dannefer, "Cumulative advantage/disadvantage and the life course: Cross-fertilizing age and social science theory," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, vol. 58, no. 6, pp. S327-S337, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/58.6.S327.
10
K. F. Ferraro and T. P. Shippee, "Aging and cumulative inequality: How does inequality get under the skin?," The Gerontologist, vol. 49, no. 3, pp. 333-343, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gnp034.
11
N. Halfon, K. Larson, M. Lu, E. Tullis, and S. Russ, "Lifecourse health development: Past, present and future," Maternal and Child Health Journal, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 344-365, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10995-013-1346-2.
12
J.-P. Michel and R. Sadana, "Healthy aging concepts and measures," Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, vol. 18, no. 6, pp. 460-464, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jamda.2017.03.008.
13
M. Cesari, I. A. de Carvalho, J. A. Thiyagarajan, et al., "Evidence for the domains supporting the construct of intrinsic capacity," The Journals of Gerontology: Series A, vol. 73, no. 12, pp. 1653-1660, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/gly011.
14
J. Cao and A. Rammohan, "Social capital and healthy ageing in Indonesia," BMC Public Health, vol. 16, art. no. 631, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-3257-9.
15
L. W. Oktaviani, H.-C. Hsu, and Y.-C. Chen, "Effects of health-related behaviors and changes on successful aging among Indonesian older people," International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 19, no. 10, art. no. 5952, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19105952.
16
V. Yiengprugsawan, J. Piggott, F. Witoelar, et al., "Pain and its impact on functional health: 7-year longitudinal findings among middle-aged and older adults in Indonesia," Geriatrics, vol. 5, no. 2, art. no. 39, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/geriatrics5020039.
17
S. Pengpid and K. Peltzer, "Hand grip strength and its sociodemographic and health correlates among older adult men and women (50 years and older) in Indonesia," Current Gerontology and Geriatrics Research, vol. 2018, art. no. 3265041, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3265041.
18
Y. A. Mashuri, N. Ng, and A. Santosa, "Socioeconomic disparities in the burden of hypertension among Indonesian adults-a multilevel analysis," Global Health Action, vol. 15, no. 1, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/16549716.2022.2129131.
19
T. Le, A. Lee, and J. Gilleen, "Association of childhood health and socioeconomic status with dementia risk in older age: a cross-sectional study using the Indonesia Family Life Survey 2014-2015," BMJ Open, vol. 15, no. 8, art. no. e093896, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2024-093896.
20
S. Sujarwoto, T. Yumarni, and H. Holipah, "Can socioeconomic disadvantage explain cognitive differences in later life? Insights from the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Frontiers in Public Health, vol. 13, 2025. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1563543.
21
B. Patria, "The longitudinal effects of education on depression: Finding from the Indonesian national survey," Frontiers in Public Health, vol. 10, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1017995.
22
E. Nizeyumukiza, A. C. Pierewan, and E. Ndayambaje, "Social capital and mental health among older adults in Indonesia: A multilevel approach," Journal of Population and Social Studies, vol. 29, pp. 1-14, 2021. https://doi.org/10.25133/jpssv292021.001.
23
Y. S. Handajani, E. Schroder-Butterfill, and E. Hogervorst, "Insomnia in Indonesia older adults: The role of mental health, sociodemographic status, and physical function," Sleep Medicine Research, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 96-105, 2024. https://doi.org/10.17241/smr.2023.02068.
24
P. N. Yau, C. J. E. Foo, N. L. J. Cheah, et al., "The prevalence of functional disability and its impact on older adults in the ASEAN region: a systematic review and meta-analysis," Epidemiology and Health, vol. 44, art. no. e2022058, 2022. https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2022058.
25
Y. Selvamani and R. Sadana, "Socioeconomic differences in handgrip strength and its association with measures of intrinsic capacity among older adults in six middle-income countries," Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99047-9.
26
Y. Si, K. Hanewald, and S. Chen, "Life-course inequalities in intrinsic capacity and healthy ageing, China," Bulletin of the World Health Organization, vol. 101, no. 5, pp. 307-316C, 2023. https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.22.288888.
27
Y. Ye, C. Long, K. C. Chua, et al., "Socio-economic position and healthy ageing across the life course: a systematic review of longitudinal studies," GeroScience, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11357-026-02137-7.
28
M. Marmot, S. Friel, R. Bell, T. A. J. Houweling, and S. Taylor, "Closing the gap in a generation: health equity through action on the social determinants of health," The Lancet, vol. 372, no. 9650, pp. 1661-1669, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61690-6.
29
S. Stringhini et al., "Socioeconomic status and the 25x25 risk factors as determinants of premature mortality: a multicohort study and meta-analysis of 1.7 million men and women," The Lancet, vol. 389, no. 10075, pp. 1229-1237, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32380-7.
30
M. Prince, F. Wu, Y. Guo, et al., "The burden of disease in older people and implications for health policy and practice," The Lancet, vol. 385, no. 9967, pp. 549-562, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61347-7.
31
K. Barnett, S. W. Mercer, M. Norbury, G. Watt, S. Wyke, and B. Guthrie, "Epidemiology of multimorbidity and implications for health care, research, and medical education," The Lancet, vol. 380, no. 9836, pp. 37-43, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60240-2.
32
A. Marengoni, S. Angleman, R. Melis, et al., "Aging with multimorbidity: A systematic review of the literature," Ageing Research Reviews, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 430-439, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arr.2011.03.003.
33
J. Patel, J. Wallace, M. Doshi, et al., "Oral health for healthy ageing," The Lancet Healthy Longevity, vol. 2, no. 8, pp. e521-e527, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2666-7568(21)00142-2.
34
P. Poudel, G. Paudel, R. Acharya, et al., "Oral health and healthy ageing: a scoping review," BMC Geriatrics, vol. 24, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12877-023-04613-7.
35
R. Hardy, D. A. Lawlor, and D. Kuh, "A life course approach to cardiovascular aging," Future Cardiology, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 101-113, 2015. https://doi.org/10.2217/fca.14.67.
36
V. Rocha, S. Fraga, C. Moreira, et al., "Life-course socioeconomic disadvantage and lung function: a multicohort study of 70,496 individuals," European Respiratory Journal, vol. 57, no. 3, art. no. 2001600, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.01600-2020.
37
C. L. Niedzwiedz, S. V. Katikireddi, J. P. Pell, and R. Mitchell, "The association between life course socioeconomic position and life satisfaction in different welfare states," Age and Ageing, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 431-436, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afu004.
38
E. K. Pavalko and J. L. Caputo, "Social inequality and health across the life course," American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 57, no. 8, pp. 1040-1056, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764213487344.
39
M. Gilligan, A. Karraker, and A. Jasper, "Linked lives and cumulative inequality: A multigenerational family life course framework," Journal of Family Theory & Review, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 111-125, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1111/jftr.12244.
40
J. W. Rowe and R. L. Kahn, "Successful aging," The Gerontologist, vol. 37, no. 4, pp. 433-440, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/37.4.433.
41
D. E. Bloom, S. Chatterji, P. Kowal, et al., "Macroeconomic implications of population ageing and selected policy responses," The Lancet, vol. 385, no. 9968, pp. 649-657, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61464-1.
42
RAND Corporation and SurveyMETER, Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), 1993-2014/15: Longitudinal household, individual, community, and facility data. Documentation notes baseline coverage of 13 provinces, 321 enumeration areas, and approximately 83% of the Indonesian population.
43
A. E. Raftery, N. Li, H. Sevcikova, P. Gerland, and G. K. Heilig, "Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 109, no. 35, pp. 13915-13921, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211452109.
44
L. Alkema, A. E. Raftery, P. Gerland, et al., "Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries," Demography, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 815-839, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
45
J. J. Azose, H. Sevcikova, and A. E. Raftery, "Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 113, no. 23, pp. 6460-6465, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606119113.
46
Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas, "Government strengthens regulation to address the transition toward an ageing society," Development News, Jul. 1, 2026.
47
World Health Organization, Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE): Guidance for Person-Centred Assessment and Pathways in Primary Care. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO, 2019.
48
Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas, "Bappenas strengthens the National Ageing Strategy through community-based integrated elderly services," Development News, Jun. 23, 2025.
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Muhammad Aridan, Auwliya Khairun Nisa
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors
.png)
Article Tools
Citation Impact
Crossref Cited-by
0
citations
Counted from citation links between Crossref-registered works.
Last checked 05 Nov 2026.